Symposium Presentations

Historical Overview of Operational NWP
• The Backbone of Forecasting - Al Moyers, Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)
• History: Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit - Joe Irwin, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
• Bridging the Gap: The U.S. Move from Research to Operational NWP - Kris Harper, American Meteorological Society (AMS) History Committee
• The 1954 Start of Operational Numerical Prediction in Sweden - Anders Persson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

Session 1
• 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction - John Jones (Deputy Assistant Administrator for Weather Services)
• Richardson's Forecast: What Went Wrong?(PDF format) - Peter Lynch (Assistant Director, Irish Met Service)

Session 2
• 30 Years of Navy NWP Modeling and Supercomputers: An Anecdotal History - Tom Rosmond, Naval Research Laboratory
• The Interplay of Computer Power, Computer Architecture, and Numerical Algorithms in the progress of Numerical Weather Prediction - Anthony Hollingsworth, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
• The 1953 North Sea Gale in Perspective of Historical NWP efforts - H. M. van den Dool, Climate Prediction Center
• A Historical Perspective on the Role of NWP Models in the Prediction of Severe Local Storms - Steven Weiss and Joseph Schaefer, NOAA/Storm Prediction Center

Session 3
• Numerical Weather Prediction at the Air Force Weather Agency - Mark Surmeier, AFWA Air & Space Science Directorate
• NMC/NCEP Supercomputers and the Models that Consumed Them: A Sordid Tale of Codependence - Geoff DiMego, NCEP
• The Eta Model: Design, History, and Performance: What Lessons Have We Learned? - Fedor Mesinger, NCEP/EMC
• The Spectral Method: Its Impact on NWP - Ferdinand Baer, University of Maryland
• The Emergence of Land-surface modeling in Modern-Era Numerical Weather Prediction: The NCEP Experience and Collaborations - Kenneth E. Mitchell, NCEP/EMC
• Mesoscale Weather Prediction with the RUC Hybrid Isentropic-Sigma Coordinate Model and Data Assimilation System - Stan Benjamin, NOAA Research/Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO

Session 4
• From Model Predictions to Forecasters: Then and Now Panel Discussion Questions - Carlyle H. Wash, Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)

Session 5
• A Vision for Environmental Services as Numerical Weather Prediction Enters the Next 50 Years - Jack Hayes, National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Science and Technology (Colonel, USAF, ret.)
• A Customer Perspective on the Evolution of Numerical Weather Prediction as Applied to Naval Operations - The Real Story - Carl Thormeyer, FNMOC
• Evolution of the Relationship Between Weather Forecasters and Numerical Models Over the Last 50 Years - James Hoke, NCEP
• Initial State Sensitivity Experiments in a Real Data Model
• HPC Operations - Michael Schichtel, NCEP/HPC
• 30 Years of Operational Ocean Wave Forecasting at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center - Michael Clancy, FNMOC
• Forecasting Oceanic Cyclones at the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center - Joseph Sienkiewicz, NCEP/OPC
• Objective Interpretation of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output: A Perspective Based on Verification of Temperature and Precipitation Guidance - Paul Dallavalle, Meteorological Development Laboratory ,Office of Science and Technology ,National Weather Service/NOAA

Session 6
• A History of the U.S. Navy's Numerical Objective Analysis and Data Assimilation - Edward H. Barker, NRL
• Maturation of Data Assimilation Over the Last Two Decades - John Derber, NCEP
• Exploring New Pathways in Precipitation Assimilation - Arthur Y. Hou, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office ,NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
• Introduction of Temperature Observation of Radiosonde in Place of Geopotential Height to the Global Three-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System in JMA - Akio Narui ,Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
• Impact Experiments on GMAO Data Assimilation and Forecast Systems with MODIS Winds during MOWSAP - Ron Gelaro, NASA/GMAO

Session 7
• Ensemble Forecasting: History and Future - Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland
• Present status and future directions for ensemble forecasting at NCEP(PDF format) - Zoltan Toth, NCEP/EMC
• Applications of Ensemble Prediction - A Historical Perspective - Steven Tracton, ONR
• The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System: Delivering Global Data for Improved Numerical Weather Prediction - John D. Cunningham, System Program Director, NPOESS Integrated Program Office
  Accompanying Animations: windsat.avi, NPOESSbeauty2.avi
• Tests of an Ensemble Kalman Filter for Mesoscale Data Assimilation - Fuqing Zhang, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University
• Assimilation of Satellite Cloud Data into the GMAO Finite-volume Data Assimilation System using Variational Parameter Estimation - Arlindo da Silva, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
• The NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction(NCWCP)

Banquet
• Introduction of Norm Phillips - Anders Persson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
• NWP and the Appalachian Storm of November 1950 - Norm Phillips, MIT (NMC/NCEP, ret.)

Session 8
• Notes on NWP and the History of Long Range Forecasting - Don Gilman, NCEP/CPC (ret)
• Dynamical Seasonal Prediction: A Personal Retrospective of the Last 30 Years (1975-2004), and Conjectures about the Future - Jagadish Shukla, George Mason University
• The Infinite Forecast - Ants Leetmaa, NOAA/GFDL
• The NWP "Breakthrough" for Climate Analysis Center Presentations/Monthly Predictions in 1981 - Robert E. Livezy, Climate Services Division,OCWWS/NWS/NOA
• How Long Can an Atmospheric Model Predict? - Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA
• The Long Journey of NWS Medium-Range Prediction - Edward O'Lenic, NCEP/CPC

Session 9
• Global Weather Prediction - Possible developments in the Next Decades - Lennart Bengtsson, Max-Planck-Institut Meteorologiee
• "Fifteen Years of Research in the Numerical Prediction of Storm-Scale Weather: Is Operational Implementation Very Far Away?"
• Isentropic Diagnostic Assessments and Modeling Strategies Appropriate to the Development of Weather and Climate Models - Donald R. Johnson, Emeritus Professor, U of Wisconsin, NCEP Special Project Scientist
• Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction with the WRF Model - Y.-H. Kuo, Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research
  Accompanying Animations: 11junecompare.avi, 12junecompare.avi, 24maycompare.avi, 30maycompare.avi, BAMEX_RADAR.avi, compare_anim_012400.avi, ICH081_movie.avi
• The Next-generation Flexible Global Atmospheric Model - Hann-Ming Henry Juang ,Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP
• Implementation of a Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) - Bob Gall, National Center for Atmospheric Research
• An Evolutionary Approach to Nonhydrostatic Modeling - Hui-ya Chuang, Z. Janjic, National Centers for Environmental Prediction
• Application of Numerical Models in the Forecast Process From National Centers to the Local Weather Forecast Office (WFO) - David W. Reynolds, NWS WFO, San Francisco Bay Area
• Translating Advances in Numerical Weather Prediction into Official NWS Forecasts - David P. Ruth, Meteorological Development Laboratory, NOAA/NWS
• Emergence of the Earth System Modeling Framework - Cecelia DeLuca ,ESMF/NCAR Technical Project Manager ,National Center for Atmospheric Research
• The Future of NWP - Steve Lord, NCEP